Confirmation Bias (The Tea Vs Coffee Verdict)

Confirmation Bias

Do you ever find that no matter how hard you try to be open-minded and objective, your views could still be one-sided in the end?

Try calling a friend several times, and you do not receive a reply; your mind easily jumps to conclusions.

Is your friend ghosting you? Could it be a lost phone or a sudden bout of sickness? Or could it be something more serious?

Here we throw out the objective reality and embrace our subjective biases to devise a juicy explanation. Who needs logic when you’ve got wild speculation? 

Is it not? We might be the victims of confirmation bias without even realizing it!

Confirmation Bias is a cognitive bias that leads us to seek information confirming our pre-existing beliefs. Learn more about confirmation bias, how it affects our thinking, and some tips for overcoming it.

Understanding Confirmation Bias

Confirmation bias is when people only want to hear information that agrees with what they already believe. As a result, they might ignore the evidence that goes against their pre-existing views or stance. So, people often look for ways to support their views, which can distort the actual view of reality, making it harder to think critically and preventing us from seeing the whole situation. 

This phenomenon can be witnessed in various realms, such as politics, science, and also the media you consume. This bias impacts our understanding of the world and affects our choices. 

For instance, in product reviews, confirmation bias may lead an individual to ignore negative reviews and focus only on positive reviews to justify their purchase decision. In this scenario, the individual selectively seeks information confirming their belief that the product is worth purchasing. They may ignore negative reviews that highlight flaws or issues.

The Exploited and The Exploiters

Anybody who has to “Decide” can be susceptible to this confirmation bias, and it is important to be aware of it. One must accept alternative viewpoints and continually seek new evidence, regardless of whether it agrees with our beliefs.

Conversely, those who take advantage of confirmation bias often use persuasive tactics such as loaded language, fear-mongering or false promises to manipulate people’s thinking or behavior.

Politicians may seize on evidence that supports their point of view while conveniently ignoring evidence that conflicts with it. Similarly, scientists can be guilty of cherry-picking data or interpreting results in a way that confirms pre-existing beliefs. Finally, in business, unethical companies might use deceptive advertising or marketing campaigns to exploit confirmation bias to increase sales or drive consumer decisions.

Day-To-Day Confirmation Bias

  • Believing only news or sources supporting our views or opinions while disregarding all other sources.
  • Making decisions based on gut feelings rather than fact-based evidence or data.
  • Interpreting events around us in a way that reinforces our views and beliefs – even when presented with contradictory information.
  • Automatically assuming that people with different values, lifestyles, or backgrounds are wrong without hearing their perspective first.

Recognizing When You’re Slipping into the Confirmation Bias Trap

It can be difficult to recognize when we get trapped by confirmation bias. It is important to step back and evaluate how our decision-making process might be influenced. Some suggestions have been presented here that could be useful in navigating this difficult circumstance.

Tella-tale Signs of Confirmation Bias

  1. Reluctance or refusal to entertain alternative explanations or viewpoints.
  2. Dependence on emotion rather than facts when making decisions.
  3. Undue reliance on “gut feeling” or intuition over evidence or fact-based reasoning.
  4. Unwillingness or inability to properly consider all potential solutions before drawing a conclusion or deciding.

Overcoming the Confirmation Bias Trap

Overcoming confirmation bias isn’t always easy, but here are a few strategies we can use to help us stay objective.

  1. Don’t jump to conclusions: Take your time to consider all sides of an argument before making a judgment.
  2. Do your research: Seek out reliable sources, and never rely on a single source of information.
  3. Be open to other ideas: Don’t be afraid to change your opinion if you hear something that makes sense and is based on facts.
  4. Question the motivations behind your beliefs: Critically evaluate why you believe certain things and ensure those beliefs are rooted in truth, not just feelings or assumptions.
  5. Be aware of confirmation bias in yourself and others: Recognize when people only seek reinforcing evidence for their beliefs instead of considering alternative possibilities. Try to help them too!
  6. Challenge assumptions: Don’t accept claims at face value, but ask questions that force people to prove or disprove them with evidence.
  7. Adopt an attitude of skepticism: Be willing to question even the most widely accepted ideas or theories if they are not backed up by solid proof.

Final Thoughts

A coffee fanatic friend would start his day sipping his special cup of filter coffee and favorite newspaper. He religiously read the daily and believed every single word from it, even going so far as to spout its opinions as “THE WORD.”

However, that changed one fateful day when this article caught his eye – “Tea Vs Coffee: The Ultimate Showdown.” According to a “top” clinical nutritionist, tea was apparently the clear winner. Since tea has lower levels of caffeine, it was the obvious and healthier choice overall. Well, you can imagine the shock and horror on our dear coffee lover’s face as he read this blasphemy.

But alas! it was too late. The article swayed our friend, and soon traded in his trusty coffee mug for a chai glass. And if that was not bad enough, he also became a tea preacher trying to push tea onto all his friends, citing article after article on the miraculous benefits of tea. Some of us even wondered if he was secretly in cahoots with the tea board!

Moral of the story: Believe in your choices, but don’t be afraid to question everything. And as for our friend, we’re all still hoping he’ll come to his senses and return to at least have black coffee.

What do you think? Are you convinced now that confirmation bias exists? How might you combat it next time you find yourself getting defensive during a discussion?

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Next:

Reciprocity Bias – Is there Free Lunch?

Reference

The above article is based on the book Thinking Clearly; this article is here to help us learn and understand how our minds can be tricked by something called cognitive biases.

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