Conjunction Fallacy- Would You Choose Healthy Or Organic?

Let’s say you are asked to choose which of these statements is more likely to be true:

Apples are healthy.
Apples are healthy and organic.

What would your choice be?

Your choice will help determine if you can overcome the conjunction fallacy.

Learn about the cognitive bias known as conjunction fallacy and how you can avoid it in your life.

Understanding the Conjunction Fallacy

The conjunction fallacy is a cognitive bias in which people assume that the likelihood of two events occurring together is greater than that of either one occurring alone.

Imagine being presented with two pieces of information and asked which is more likely to be true. However, this one statement includes a certain extra detail that makes it seem completely different.

As a result, people tend to overestimate the probability of mutually exclusive events happening simultaneously instead of using rational thinking and evidence-based decision-making processes.

So which of the two statements would you fall for while choosing a life insurance policy?

Statement 1- The insurance package offered by company X is ideal for a small family.
Statement 2- The insurance package offered by company X is ideal for a small family as it covers Alien attacks too.

Remember that just because something sounds plausible, it wouldn’t make it true! One should be aware of how the conjunction fallacy can be used to coax you into taking impulsive actions.

Here your approach should be clear and objective. Also, refrain from allowing emotions to interfere with your thought process and instead focus on rational reasoning while making choices.

Exploited And Exploiters

People who rely on intuitive thinking in decision-making are often prone to the conjunction fallacy, which involves succumbing to logical inconsistencies when confronted with complicated situations.

Persons who seek to influence the decisions of others often take advantage of this tendency. They may present two appealing choices without highlighting any logical inconsistencies in the options, leading to poor decision-making and potentially expensive outcomes if not recognized promptly.

Day-To-Day Conjunction Fallacy

A store offers a promotion of two items, but the customer needs to assume they are getting a discount if they buy both items instead of just one.
A restaurant offers two different specials on its menu for different prices. Still, the diner assumes they will get a better deal if they order both instead of picking just one.
An online retailer offers free shipping when purchasing multiple items, but the customer mistakenly believes that buying all items together is cheaper even though each item has its own separate cost.
A fashion store encourages customers to buy dresses and shoes for an outfit, falsely assuming that they will be less expensive than buying them separately.
A car dealership advertises two cars for sale with very appealing features, yet the buyer accepts that buying both will be cheaper despite not getting any additional discounts or incentives.

Recognizing When You Are Slipping Into The Conjunction Fallacy Trap

One way to identify when you are falling into the trap of the conjunction fallacy is to consciously take the time to evaluate all available options before making a decision.

Ask yourself if any potential risks are associated with combining two strategies or solutions, and consider if one option could be more successful.

Additionally, be aware of any bias you may have towards a certain option or course of action and think objectively about how each solution might bring about the desired outcome.

Consulting individuals with greater expertise and experience in the relevant area could also be beneficial in making a decision.

Overcoming the Conjunction Fallacy

It is essential to question why a seemingly incredible offer is presented to you.

Make sure to consider all the potential downsides of an offer that promises a lot.
Understand your own biases and how they may lead to making wrong decisions.
Take the time to research any offers or decisions before committing to them, even if they seem attractive on the surface.
Have an alternative plan in place in case things don’t work out as expected with a decision you’ve made involving a conjunction fallacy binds.
Remove yourself from situations where you might find yourself presented with such traps and only return when you have researched more thoroughly and formulated a better plan of action.
Be in the company of people who can help you be more mindful of cognitive biases and make smarter decisions when presented with offers involving conjunction fallacies traps.

Final Thoughts

Now coming to our opening lines, which apple would be your choice to keep the doctor away? Many people may choose statement 2 because it provides more information about apples, and we often associate organic foods with being healthier than non-organic foods.

However, considering the probability of both statements being true at the same time (i.e., that apples are both healthy and organic) is lower than just the probability of statement 1 being true.

The human brain is wired to look for patterns and connections, but sometimes this can lead us astray, and this example shows how our brains can sometimes be swayed by additional details, even if they don’t necessarily make a statement more likely to be true.

Finally

Employing critical thinking skills and analyzing circumstances separately can help make rational decisions based on logical reasoning, avoiding the pitfalls of the conjunction fallacy. Thanks for reading, and we hope it helped you get a clear and objective mindset for decision-making and favorable outcomes. Do subscribe to our blog for more interesting reads

Reference

The above article is based on the book Thinking Clearly; this article is here to help us learn and understand how our minds can be tricked by something called cognitive biases.