Do you find motivational talks overwhelming? Like movies with only happy endings?
Does your selective memory block the times you lost?
Is losing really a bad thing?
Understand the reality behind the ignored failures and glorified successes? So, let’s pull away the curtains of false perception and dive into uncovering survivorship bias.
Survivorship bias is a cognitive bias that leads people to focus disproportionately on successful outcomes instead of considering all outcomes. This blog post will help you how to overcome this bias and make better decisions.
Understanding “Survivorship Bias”
Survivorship Bias is an error people make when they only remember when something worked out and forget the times when it didn’t. This can give them a false idea about how often things work out and what is possible.
People buy lottery tickets even though the chances of success are slim; You must have noticed this, right? This behavior can be attributed to survivorship bias, as these individuals may only focus on the stories of those who have won big through the lottery and ignore the thousands of people who have lost money over time.
By recalling only the success stories, these individuals become biased toward the idea that they too can win. This psychological tendency can lead people to make irrational decisions and miss out on important data that could inform their choices. In this scenario, it could cause people to overestimate their chances of winning the lottery and underestimate the risks and costs associated with buying tickets.
The Exploited and The Exploiters
Victims of survivorship bias are typically people who don’t have enough information to make an informed decision or are low on confidence. People who take advantage of this cognitive bias can be anyone who wants to influence decision-making using incomplete or skewed data.
The people who use this to their advantage include politicians, marketers, business leaders, and even individual people looking to manipulate a situation in their favor. Presenting only the successful outcomes of past events creates an illusion of success that is not necessarily accurate or reliable.
Day-To-Day Survivorship Bias
Investing in stocks
People often invest in companies that have had past success without any real knowledge about their future potential for growth or decline.
Political campaigns
Candidates may present their successes as a basis for why they should be elected while ignoring the failures of their opponents and any unsavory aspects of their records.
Celebrity endorsements
Consumers fall prey to celebrity endorsements, only seeing a select group of successful stories rather than researching all possible options before making a purchase.
Medical treatment choices
Without understanding any potential risks, people tend to choose medical treatments based solely on stories of previous successes, overlooking potentially serious side effects or failures that occurred with other patients following similar procedures.
Recognizing When You’re Slipping Into The Survivorship Trap
In order to identify when we are falling into the trap of Survivorship Bias, it is important to ask ourselves questions such as “Why is this individual or organization successful?” and “What factors have cushioned them against potential failure compared to others in the same field?” Additionally, we should look at a broad range of individuals or organizations to get an accurate picture of success.
Finally, it can also help to focus on the success process rather than solely on end results, as this will allow us to identify any potentially overlooked risks and threats that could lead to failure.
Overcoming the Survivorship Bias Trap
To effectively address the effects of Survivorship Bias, it is vital to consider multiple factors.
- Analyze the available data and draw realistic conclusions instead of focusing on what has already succeeded.
- Instead of viewing failure as a cause for shame, regard it as a chance to gain knowledge and grow.
- Take time to reflect and analyze different angles of a situation before drawing any conclusions.
- Make sure to consider successes and failures when making decisions, as nothing is guaranteed in life.
- Identify the root cause of a problem before attacking the symptoms, which could help avoid falling into a trap.
- Seek different perspectives and advice from trusted sources to avoid tunnel vision while seeking solutions.
- Never be complacent; always strive for improvement and innovation to avoid any potential survivorship biases.
Final thoughts
Don’t be blinded by success stories! Sure, they are great, but they only make up one piece of the puzzle. In fact, the so-called “failures” have just as much to teach us – maybe even more. By ignoring them, you could lose the opportunity to gain useful knowledge that can assist you in making more informed choices later on.
It can be discouraging to perform multiple iterations of an experiment aimed at validating a scientific theory only to obtain unfavorable outcomes. This may even lead you to believe that the theory you are testing is a failure. But this may not necessarily be true; it could just mean that these experiments weren’t successful, and you may need to brainstorm in another direction and try out a different set of experiments.
So the moral of the story? Embrace your unsuccessful stories and learn from them!
However, taking valuable lessons from both successes and failures in order to make your theories stronger. Did this article make you believe failure could be a stepping stone to success? Then sign up for our newsletter now! To stay current on the information regarding cognitive biases and how they can impact your life and work.
Reference
The above article is based on the book Thinking Clearly; this article is here to help us learn and understand how our minds can be tricked by something called cognitive biases.